This is not meant to be political so please don’t bring up politics. We all have our opinions. I wish people would learn that chances of me changing your mind or you changing my mind are slim to none and discussing politics is only going to cause discord and result in friendships that are either lost or never to be the same. I had it happen this week. It always makes me sad. We all feel right in what we believe but there are two sides to most everything. One side isn’t always right and the other side always wrong. But again, chances are no one really wants to hear your political views unless it’s meant to be a political debate – not a great topic for friends! Some are going to love the person in office, no matter which office we’re talking about, and some are never going to see that they do anything correctly. We would be much better off praying for those in office than we would be criticizing everything they do.
OK .. got that out of the way. This is just the cold, hard facts. Yesterday I placed a delivery with Walmart (shipped, not delivery), and an order with Sam’s. It was all things that I buy routinely – things we use over and over – pasta, rice, parchment paper. I buy the same things from Walmart or Sam’s at least once a year. I went back on some of our orders from April, 2021 and there were some significant increases from what we paid then to what we pay now. I went back to April because that’s when Vince got here and real grocery buying began anew.
I’m no economist but I don’t think the Consumer Price Index is a 100% accurate gauge of how inflation affects all individuals the same but it’s a tool that gives us a bit of insight on where our buying power stands. I feel certain that someone living in California is feeling inflation a bit differently than someone living in southwest Missouri and I feel certain a young family living from paycheck to paycheck is feeling it much differently than a retired couple who doesn’t have the need to buy as much (though some we know do!)
If you look at the change from January, 2020 to November, 2021, it isn’t huge but that’s only for the items measured by the CPI index.
For comparison, if you go back to the same time span – January to November the following year, but 2006 to 2007, it isn’t a whole lot different.
When you see the jump in the percentage of change, it’s a bit more concerning. Energy prices are up 33% over the past 12 months. Food prices are up 6%. Yes, there are reasons that can be given for all of these increase, not the least of which is Covid and its ramifications. This chart is from a CPI website.
I found this on a USDA site:
Average annual food-at-home prices were 3.5 percent higher in 2020 than in 2019. For context, the 20-year historical level of retail food price inflation is 2.0 percent per year—meaning the 2020 increase was 75 percent above average.
Food increased at 3.5% in 2020 and 6.1% in 2021.
It is what it is, right? One thing goes up, we either have to fork over more money for it or use less. Life goes on. Dwelling on it will result in being unhappy and worried about the future. I think we need to be aware of what’s going on, pay attention to the prices we’re paying, buy what we need when it’s on sale, buy in bulk if you’re able but even then, check the prices because it isn’t always less expensive plus, if you’re buying 50 pounds of flour and don’t use it and have to throw it out, it wasn’t a bargain.
I just thought all this was interesting – not trying to cause concern and actually, after breaking down the numbers myself, it isn’t as bad as I would have guessed from what we’re hearing on the news or reading on Facebook.
Barbara says
I studied economics in college and graduate school. Inflation is difficult to measure, it’s especially hard to measure the impact inflation has on consumers. The CPI is a basket of goods, and they compare the prices month to month on the same basket of goods. It’s not ideal, but it is consistent. For example, if both beef and chicken are in the CPI basket, and the price of beef goes up significantly more than the price of chicken, many people will switch and buy more chicken and less beef. Economists call this substitutions, and CPI doesn’t account for that. It also just looks at the price of television, it doesn’t take into account that today’s televisions have more features and are more technologically advanced with better pictures.
Another factor is that the gasoline portion of the energy component was very low in 2020. When the pandemic hit, demand for gasoline by consumers fell dramatically, and also industrial oil demand fell as well. So year over year, energy reflects a large price increase, but looking at 2019 – 2021 the price increase for energy is still up just not as dramatic, but CPI doesn’t account for that.
Our perception is that politicians control the economy, and when the economy is good whoever is in power wants to take credit for it, and when it is bad, whoever is out of power points a lot of fingers. The factors that affect the U.S. economy are now global. There are certainly some things like taxes, and stimulus, and releasing oil from the strategic reserve, that have an impact, most of these types of tools, except for taxes, are done by politicians of both parties. The same is true of the stock market, people give more credit to the president at the time for stock market increases and decreases, and again, that is strictly posturing by politicians.
We all see our grocery bills increasing, and I’m lucky I can absorb that cost. My hear breaks for those living on the margin that struggle with higher costs.
I hope you don’t find this political, but more scholarly.
judy.blog@gmail.com says
And, from what I understand, they measure the same 75 areas each month. I’m sure they feel it’s a representation but definitely not accurate for everyone. I knew the energy costs were not included in the CPI so that’s why I added the graph that did show them.
No, I do not find it political. Thank you for the educated explanation.
I also am very happy that we’re able to absorb the added costs and that we’re not burdened by debt and that we are able to cut back, whether it’s groceries, travel or cross stitch supplies, when the need arises.
Sara Fridley says
That is one of the best explanations I’ve ever seen. Thank you!
Cindy F says
Thank you for the scholarly reply! I especially thank you for the energy comparison from 2019 to 2021, as that is more of a real comparison. It has been driving my husband crazy when people talk about the difference between 2020 and 2021 as you mentioned, energy was way down due to covid in 2020. We too are fortunate to be able to absorb the increased costs of things.
Mary says
Love Barbara’s explanation. I too am fortunate to be able to absorb the increased cost of groceries, etc., but I worry about those who were already living on the edge. I was fortunate the my parents made sure at a very young age that I understood the need to save for the future and the importance of budgeting and not just buying something because I wanted it. I have also tried to pass this on to my children and grandchildren. Old age comes fast and we all need to be prepared (I am there!) because our savings have to support us!